El Blog de Jose Barta

Los últimos pronosticos de Marc Faber 1.053

Posted by pepebarta en 11/10/2010

José Barta; 11-10-2010

Hace unos días saltaban a la opinión pública los pronósticos que Marc Faber, el conocido inversor internacional, realizaba sobre la carrera emprendida, por las principales economías mundiales, en la devaluación de sus respectivas monedas. En una carrera cuyo único objetivo es el de impulsar la propia economía, en detrimento del resto, fomentando las exportaciones.

Marc Faber comentaba que Estados Unidos se encontraba preparada para ser uno de los ganadores de dicha carrera, que veía inevitable, a pesar de los discursos del FMI, del BM y del Presidente del BCE, Jean Claude Trichet.

A pesar de ello, Faber se ha mostrado muy escéptico con la situación de la economía norteamericana, a la que pronostica no menos de cinco años para recuperarse.

Acaba de publicar su informe de octubre, sobre mercados, del que me complace adjuntar un resumen:

Here are a few highlights of Faber`s Monthly Report:
I. Equity Markets -Faber was correct last month in predicting a rally based upon extremely negative investor sentiment. He is more cautious about October because stocks are very overbought according to the % of stock above their 50 day moving average. Another reason for concern, is that after a strong September, markets often fall sharply in October and November. He is underweight equities right now.
II. Emerging Markets – Countries like Indonesia, Malaysia, etc are likely entering a price bubble thanks to worldwide money printing. Faber would not be buying these high-flying markets right now even though they could enter a final parabolic phase. He would be selling positions.
III. Dollar and Currencies – The dollar is extremely oversold and investor sentiment is very bearish. Conversely, investors are very bullish on the Euro (96% bullish according to DSI). Faber believes that a inflection point could be at hand leading to a nice move upward move in the dollar. He would not be short the dollar right now.
IV. Gold and Commodities – Because he is bullish on the dollar right now, Faber believes there could be a significant correction in gold and other commodities. This could be a rather large decline, but would represent a buying opportunity. Why? More Quantitative Easing would be on the way.
V. Bonds – If the market declines and the dollar surges, this would be a positive for treasuries. However, upside is limited to 2.08% on the ten year (Dec 2008 low). Faber does not expect yields to fall to new lows.

VI. Quantitative Easing – The decline in asset markets will provide cover for the Fed to print more money.

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